Published on August 10, 2026
Feedlots remain willing to add weight to cattle while awaiting higher bids from packers, leading to July 1 inventories holding 2% higher than last year. Cattle futures plummeted from $2.57 at the end of June to $2.20 recently. Meanwhile, packers are facing record losses and continue to restrict slaughter. The wholesale price of all beef cuts (beef cutout) is now trading even with last year, which explains why cattle prices have dropped back toward 2025 levels.
Key Drivers:
Expanding dairy cow slaughter combined with larger imports has lifted total ground beef supply by 5%.
Slower sales in June pushed wholesale prices down to last year’s levels, but forward sales accelerated significantly in July.
Outlook: While record retail prices of $7.18/lb in June may be cooling consumer demand, the surge in forward sales suggests more retail promotions and higher prices are coming in August.
Key Drivers:
Prices did not drop significantly after Independence Day, limiting the window for forward bookings.
As a “premium” cut, ribeyes are seeing continued support from affluent earners within the “K economy.”
Outlook: Ribeye prices have increased in 8 of the last 10 Augusts. Given the current price resilience and affluent demand, a seasonal price increase is likely.
Key Drivers:
The 15% price premium seen earlier this year has evaporated, with prices now even with the 5-year average.
Higher gasoline costs have squeezed lower-wage earners, reducing demand for mid-tier loin steaks.
Outlook: If demand remains lethargic due to economic pressure on mid-tier consumers, prices may continue to slip. Strips have dropped in 7 of the last 10 years in August.
Key Drivers:
Retail demand has been unimpressive as the lower-wage segment of the population steers clear of the beef aisle.
Substitution with Mexican top sirloin is increasing as those calves are being held longer on feedlots in Mexico.
Outlook: Ball-tip steaks are a tough sell for income-strapped consumers seeking affordable choices. Top sirloin prices have declined in 8 of the last 10 Augusts.
Key Drivers:
Prices have remained remarkably flat, averaging $15.30/lb with only a 4% range from high to low over five months.
Steady demand is keeping inventory moving through packers without any significant build-up or price spikes.
Outlook: While Labor Day can trigger an uptrend, the failure of July 4th to do so has led to a sideways forecast for the remainder of August.
Key Drivers:
Forward booking prices in July were 7% lower than the cash market, providing room for attractive retail features.
Panda Express is launching a Cantonese BBQ brisket, which is expected to support food service demand.
Outlook: Stronger retail demand and food service interest heading into the Labor Day holiday should support steady prices throughout August.
Key Drivers:
The supply of imported Mexican skirts has increased as New World Screwworm issues kept more calves in Mexican feedlots.
Domestic skirt prices are dropping closer to imported prices as seasonal demand begins to slow.
Outlook: Pressure from cheap imports is expected to accelerate the usual seasonal price decline for outside skirts.
Key Drivers:
Forward sales and exports of round cuts picked up in July, providing a potential floor for prices.
Inside round prices had been kept low previously to keep inventory flowing into ground beef production.
Outlook: If exports and retail promotions boost demand in August, prices may be bid above the ground beef floor. Prices have gone up in 8 of the last 10 Augusts.
This comprehensive research empowers you to make informed business decisions. The information contained in this monthly market update is for informational purposes only. It represents our best estimates of commodity market conditions and is subject to change without notice. While we strive to provide accurate information, Gordon Food Service cannot guarantee the completeness or accuracy of the content. Any reliance you place on this information is strictly at your own risk.
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