Published on September 8, 2026
The cattle business is facing significant infrastructure shifts with Tyson’s announcement that the Joplin, Illinois slaughter plant is closing and the Pasco, Washington plant is for sale. This lowers the “must buy” cattle numbers for minimum workweeks, shifting leverage away from feedlots. Beef demand remains lackluster, with prices currently 5% below last year. Following months of record losses, packers are restricting slaughter to push cattle costs down and keep beef prices supported. Beef prices often ease after Labor Day, but packers may cut supply to hold prices steady.
Key Drivers:
Expanding dairy cow slaughter and larger imports have lifted ground beef supply 7% in the first half of 2026.
Zero tariffs on up to 300,000 metric tons of lean beef were recently announced, signaling continued large supply.
Outlook: Increased lean beef imports combined with lackluster post-Labor Day demand points to lower ground beef prices throughout September.
Key Drivers:
Forward bookings are on par with last year, with promotions active at about one-third of retail outlets.
Demand is supported by older consumers, a demographic whose spending behavior has not been severely affected by inflation.
Outlook: Despite historically high valuations, ribeye prices have managed to average higher in each of the last three Septembers and could trend higher again.
Key Drivers:
Prices saw a slight lift going into Labor Day but are expected to drift lower by mid-month.
Retailers are positioning themselves for fall NY strip promotions, which could provide a floor for prices later in the month.
Outlook: Tight supplies and bargain buying are expected to support strip prices throughout September.
Key Drivers:
Fed beef supplies are down 5% year-to-date, but demand from middle-income consumers for budget steaks remains weak.
Prices firmed before Labor Day but are resuming their seasonal downtrend as the month progresses.
Outlook: Top sirloin prices have declined in 10 of the last 10 years in September, a trend likely to continue this month.
Key Drivers:
Prices have been tracking near 2025 levels all summer, sustained by a base level of demand from wealthier consumers.
Retailers are currently booking forward at higher price points.
Outlook:Strong forward booking suggests that tenderloin prices could remain in an uptrend into September.
Key Drivers:
High prices in August discouraged forward bookings, resulting in the lowest commitment volume in five years.
Peak grilling demand has passed, reducing immediate market pressure.
Outlook: With summer demand behind us, the path of least resistance for brisket prices appears to be lower.
Key Drivers:
Outside skirt prices are currently following their normal seasonal downtrend.
This is one of the few beef items where this year’s price has remained consistently above last year’s levels.
Outlook: Prices should continue to slip in September as seasonal demand cools.
Key Drivers:
Forward sales and exports have been lower than normal; August demand for whole-muscle cuts was insufficient to keep them from being diverted to ground beef.
Ground beef prices often trend lower in September, pulling round prices down with them.
Outlook: Inside round prices have dropped in 9 out of the last 10 years in September.
This comprehensive research empowers you to make informed business decisions. The information contained in this monthly market update is for informational purposes only. It represents our best estimates of commodity market conditions and is subject to change without notice. While we strive to provide accurate information, Gordon Food Service cannot guarantee the completeness or accuracy of the content. Any reliance you place on this information is strictly at your own risk.
Search Our Site…
