Published on September 8, 2026
The market continues to navigate the impact of the Iran conflict and high gasoline prices, which have constrained consumer spending. While pork prices averaged 15% above the 10-year average early in the year, weak summer demand has left prices barely above historical norms. As pork production begins its seasonal increase into the fall, lean hog futures suggest pork prices will drop 17% in the next sixty days.
Key Drivers:
Pork butt exports reached a ten-year low this summer, at only one-third of the 10-year average.
Brazil is aggressively taking market share in South Korea by offering lower prices than U.S. suppliers.
Rising seasonal production is motivating packers to seek domestic and export outlets.
Outlook: Butt prices may remain flat as slow exports leave markets well-supplied, though exceptional value should support some domestic demand.
Key Drivers:
Frozen ham inventories are 24% higher than last year, marking the highest July levels since 2019.
Year-to-date ham prices averaged only 3% higher as U.S. exports remained flat through the peak May-August period.
Outlook: Lower bone-in ham costs could shift more supply to boning lines, weighing on boneless ham prices throughout September.
Key Drivers:
Frozen rib inventories are sitting at their 3-year average following good summer demand.
Sparerib prices have averaged 17% higher than the 10-year average, while back ribs are holding just above.
Outlook: Rib prices may remain unchanged in September as production increases and packers work to move product to fresh markets.
Key Drivers:
August exports slowed significantly as high petroleum prices reduced consumer spending in Japan and other Asian markets.
Aggressive competition for market share has pushed pork loin export prices to 10-year lows.
Outlook: Heavy export competition and stalled volumes will likely keep a lid on loin prices this September.
Key Drivers:
The end of homegrown tomato season is reducing demand for BLTs and retail belly volumes.
Slow Quick-Service Restaurant (QSR) sales continue to be a drag on overall bacon demand.
Outlook: Pork belly prices have historically gone down in all five of the previous Septembers, and current retail discounts suggest this trend will continue.
Key Drivers:
While export volumes for picnics have rebounded, prices remain low due to intense competition from other exporters.
Domestic demand has not been strong enough to lift cushion meat prices from their current six-year lows.
Outlook: Picnic cushion meat prices are currently at the low end of their historical range, so additional downside may be limited.
This comprehensive research empowers you to make informed business decisions. The information contained in this monthly market update is for informational purposes only. It represents our best estimates of commodity market conditions and is subject to change without notice. While we strive to provide accurate information, Gordon Food Service cannot guarantee the completeness or accuracy of the content. Any reliance you place on this information is strictly at your own risk.
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