Published on April 13, 2026
Pork production was 3% higher in March, very much in line with the recent USDA Hogs & Pigs survey showing market-ready hog numbers up 2.5%. The survey suggests pork output will taper off in the summer, but for now markets are amply supplied. April is often a slow period, especially for processed pork items like ham, bacon and sausage. Using the old commodity rule-of-thumb, prices often move twice the percentage of a supply change: 3% more production means 6% lower pork prices.
Key Drivers:Pork butt prices have slipped a little as larger production leaves a few extra loads available each week.
BBQ pork season is still weeks away, so domestic demand may be steady at best.
Outlook: Cold storage inventories were at 10-year lows in February, so lower butt prices may prompt some inventory rebuilding in April.
Key Drivers:Processing demand for Easter wound down last month and ham prices have been drifting lower ever since.
Boneless ham prices have averaged 10% lower year-to-date, while bone-in ham prices have been close to 2025.
Outlook: Whether whole ham demand is shifting to bone-in spirals or deli meat demand is off due to budget pressure on working class consumers, boneless ham demand is soft. Larger production and soft demand could keep ham prices low in April.
Key Drivers:
Frozen inventory levels are about where they have been for the last few years, so any extra production will likely be offered for sale.
Grilling season is off to a slow start as inclement weather lingers in the Eastern U.S.
Outlook: Larger production could keep a lid on rib prices until we get closer to grilling season.
Key Drivers:
Loin exports accounted for one-third of all loins sold year-to-date, another new record. First-quarter loin exports were up 22% from last years record.
With more loins going offshore than were sold on the spot market, retailers are having to compete for inventory.
Outlook: Strong exports could keep prices steady in April.
Key Drivers:
The number of bacon promotions fell 20% last week and will likely wind down more in April.
With more production hitting the market, lower prices will be needed to create interest in freezer put-aways.
Outlook: April belly prices fell in eight of the last ten years.
Key Drivers:
Pork trim and picnic prices seem to have topped out in recent weeks as supply increases.
We are still a few weeks away from summer hot dog and sausage buildups, so demand could remain steady.
Outlook: Cushion meat prices could level out until we are closer to summer.
This comprehensive research empowers you to make informed business decisions. The information contained in this monthly market update is for informational purposes only. It represents our best estimates of commodity market conditions and is subject to change without notice. While we strive to provide accurate information, Gordon Food Service cannot guarantee the completeness or accuracy of the content. Any reliance you place on this information is strictly at your own risk.
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