Published on May 4, 2026
Chicken production expanded rapidly in January and February, but has since slowed to a more sustainable 1-2% rate of increase. Demand has been steady and mostly balanced with available supplies, resulting in prices that are currently trending sideways.
Key Drivers:
Production is up only 1-2%, roughly in line with population growth.
Discounted surplus breast meat has been available in both food service and retail channels recently.
Consumer demand slowed more than is typical for April, but two-thirds of retail outlets have promotions planned.
Outlook: As we enter grilling season, heavy retail promotions are expected to give prices a lift.
Key Drivers:
Thigh meat is currently more expensive than breast meat, which historically limits further price upside to only 28% of the time.
However, demand for dark meat remains firm as grilling season approaches.
Outlook: Assuming breast meat prices get a boost from grilling, thigh meat prices may inch a little higher in tandem.
Key Drivers:
Food away-from-home sales were down 1.3% in March, with slower traffic noted at wing-themed restaurants.
Spectator sports moving outdoors reduces the “sports bar” wing-friendly environment demand.
Outlook: Wing prices are already low but could slip a little more in May due to softer restaurant demand.
Key Drivers:
Frozen turkey production was up 12% for the first quarter of 2026, though cold storage inventories hit all-time lows in March.
The industry is building frozen inventory at a normal pace, with stocks expected to recover to the 5-year average by August.
Outlook:
Low inventories and the ever-present risk of HPAI are motivating accelerated buying, keeping prices high and steady until supply looks more assured.
This comprehensive research empowers you to make informed business decisions. The information contained in this monthly market update is for informational purposes only. It represents our best estimates of commodity market conditions and is subject to change without notice. While we strive to provide accurate information, Gordon Food Service cannot guarantee the completeness or accuracy of the content. Any reliance you place on this information is strictly at your own risk.
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