Published on August 10, 2026
Chicken production is up 4% year-to-date, largely attributed to better breeder flock performance with hatching per hen up 4%. This additional supply has surprised processors with more product to sell into well-supplied commodity channels. Whole chicken prices have responded to this surplus, with costs down by 5% for small birds and as much as 18% for large birds. Demand typically slows in mid-summer, which could keep downward pressure on whole chicken prices.
Key Drivers:
Chicken breast freezer inventories grew 9 million pounds in June, mirroring levels from the previous year.
Surplus supply is linked to slow Quick-Service Restaurant (QSR) chicken sandwich sales as lower wage earners cut back spending.
A brief period of retail demand strength could occur around Labor Day, though QSR traffic remains sluggish.
Outlook: It is not clear that a few weeks of stronger demand later this month will lift breast meat prices much.
Key Drivers:
Export markets are weak, with China and other Asian markets experiencing an oversupply of pork and chicken.
Trade disruption in the Middle East has further reduced international demand for leg quarters and dark meat.
Falling leg quarter prices are lifting deboning margins, boosting leg and thigh meat production.
Outlook: Given ample supply, thigh meat prices may continue lower in August.
Key Drivers:
With World Cup demand concluded, tourist traffic is fading, testing the market’s ability to consume record supply.
Chicken wing prices are still near 10-year lows, which should support continued restaurant and sports bar features.
Outlook: At this point, wing prices may have enough support to hold them steady in August.
Key Drivers:
Frozen turkey production is rebuilding stocks by 122 million pounds so far this year, the fastest accumulation since 2020.
August 1st frozen whole turkey inventory could reach the 5-year average, easing previous supply uncertainty.
The current price for whole turkeys is $1.88, significantly higher than the 5-year average of $1.43.
Outlook:We are now closer to a historically normal supply level, which may not support record prices moving forward.
This comprehensive research empowers you to make informed business decisions. The information contained in this monthly market update is for informational purposes only. It represents our best estimates of commodity market conditions and is subject to change without notice. While we strive to provide accurate information, Gordon Food Service cannot guarantee the completeness or accuracy of the content. Any reliance you place on this information is strictly at your own risk.
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