Published on March 10th, 2026
Chicken production is up 6% in the first seven weeks of 2026, a surprise given that chick placements have been running only 2-3% higher since November. While whole bird prices have fallen 6% since January due to a temporary supply bubble, production is expected to drop back to a 2-3% growth pace. Consequently, prices for whole birds are expected to firm up slightly by late March.
Key Drivers:
Prices dipped in February as production jumped and winter storms reduced restaurant traffic.
The oversupply appears to be correcting in early March as production realigns with expected growth levels.
Demand from the food service sector is expected to recover as weather conditions improve.
Outlook: Seasonal demand improvements and corrected production levels should lift prices soon.
Key Drivers:
Conflict involving Iran may disrupt shipments from Brazil, the world’s largest exporter, to the Middle East.
Disruptions in Brazilian exports could increase international competition for U.S. leg quarters.
Domestic demand remains robust with strong movement noted in food service channels.
Outlook: Historical trends show thigh meat prices increasing in March during nine of the last ten years.
Key Drivers:
Jumbo wing prices slipped 17% in February due to a recent supply bump and weaker consumer spending.
Retail demand often strengthens around peak events, though the post-Super Bowl momentum faded quickly.
The upcoming NCAA Basketball Tournament is expected to spark a secondary round of buying.
Outlook: While tournament demand is a factor, history suggests that wing prices typically level out in March.
Key Drivers:
Slaughter volume reached 24.4 million birds in the first seven weeks of 2026, a 10% increase over the previous year.
Frozen whole turkey inventories rose to 104 million pounds in January, up 48 million pounds from December.
Despite HPAI losses of 790 thousand birds this year, production is trending toward 2023 levels.
Outlook: If the industry navigates March and April without severe HPAI outbreaks, inventories will continue to replenish, allowing prices to ease.
This comprehensive research empowers you to make informed business decisions. The information contained in this monthly market update is for informational purposes only. It represents our best estimates of commodity market conditions and is subject to change without notice. While we strive to provide accurate information, Gordon Food Service cannot guarantee the completeness or accuracy of the content. Any reliance you place on this information is strictly at your own risk.
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