Published on May 4, 2026
Key Drivers:
Fuel and industrial uses now account for 25% of total world edible oil consumption, with new capacity poised to boost biofuel shares.
High petroleum prices caused by instability in the Persian Gulf are expected to keep soybean oil futures elevated for the next two years.
Outlook: Soybean oil prices will decline only after energy markets become more settled.
Key Drivers:
The USDA forecasts the smallest winter wheat production since 1965/66, leading to a projected 18% drop in U.S. ending stocks for 2026/27.
Ending stocks are at a 3-year low, and the season-average farm price is forecast at $6.50 per bushel, up $1.50 from last year.
Outlook: U.S. wheat prices will remain above world prices to shrink exports and ration smaller domestic supply.
Key Drivers:
The USDA raised its sugar import forecast, taking stocks-to-use to 16%, as high-tariff imports remain profitable due to elevated domestic prices.
Cane sugar holds a 5 cent-per-pound premium over beet sugar; consequently, beet stocks are down 6.6% while cane refiner stocks are up 14.5%.
Outlook: Until cane prices drop enough to slow imports, the outlook for lower inventories and higher sugar prices remains cloudy.
This comprehensive research empowers you to make informed business decisions. The information contained in this monthly market update is for informational purposes only. It represents our best estimates of commodity market conditions and is subject to change without notice. While we strive to provide accurate information, Gordon Food Service cannot guarantee the completeness or accuracy of the content. Any reliance you place on this information is strictly at your own risk.
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