Published on November 9, 2026
Key Drivers:
Biodiesel production is expected to increase 20% this year, consuming more than half of the total U.S. soybean oil supply.
El Nino is reducing palm oil output in Malaysia and Indonesia, making U.S. edible oil imports more expensive.
For the first time ever, the U.S. is projected to import more soybean oil than it exports.
Outlook: The USDA projects that U.S. soybean oil prices will be 10% higher in 2027.
Key Drivers:
While prices spiked earlier this year due to the Black Sea conflict, they have since eased as the market anticipates more availability.
U.S. export sales are 35% behind last year and the new winter wheat crop is off to a good start.
Outlook: Flour prices are 15% above last year, but slow exports are currently lowering wheat costs.
Key Drivers:
High-tier tariffs did not slow the flow of imported sugar, pushing ending stocks near 19% of annual usage.
U.S. raw sugar prices are at their highest since early 2025, which continues to incentivize high-tier tariff imports.
Outlook: If high-tier tariff sugar imports remain high, the larger supply could slow the advance of U.S. prices into 2027.
This comprehensive research empowers you to make informed business decisions. The information contained in this monthly market update is for informational purposes only. It represents our best estimates of commodity market conditions and is subject to change without notice. While we strive to provide accurate information, Gordon Food Service cannot guarantee the completeness or accuracy of the content. Any reliance you place on this information is strictly at your own risk.
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