Published on May 4, 2026
Pork production has been declining seasonally as warmer weather curbs hogs’ appetites, slowing weight gain. Hog slaughter was down about 6% from April rates in late May. Smaller supply is typically one factor which lifts pork prices in the summer. While cool, wet weather delayed the start of the season, a stronger seasonal uptrend is expected as weather warms and grills fire up.
Key Drivers:
Retail promotions are featuring bone-in butts for under $2/lb as consumers shift away from high-priced beef steaks.
Reduced slaughter during Memorial Day coincided with peak BBQ demand, causing a temporary spike.
Outlook: High prices have slowed exports, which could allow prices to level out through June.
Key Drivers:
Prices are benefiting from a 13% increase in the value of the Mexican peso; Mexico accounts for 40% of all U.S. pork exports.
Deli prices for premium ham remain below turkey breast and roast beef, boosting lunch meat demand.
Outlook: Tighter supplies of bone-in hams and stronger lunch meat sales should boost boneless ham prices this month.
Key Drivers:
Retailers are heavily promoting ribs at two-thirds of all stores, with feature prices between $3.25 and $3.75/lb.
Pork ribs offer cash-strapped consumers an affordable grilling option compared to beef steaks.
Outlook: Sparerib prices are expected to trend higher as we enter peak grilling season.
Key Drivers:
Feature prices range between $3-$3.50/lb, with promotions running at virtually every retail store.
Export prices for boneless loins are near 10-year lows, driving record-breaking export volumes.
Outlook: As summer grilling season begins, pork chop sales are expected to grow. While exports remain strong, prices may see upward pressure.
Key Drivers:
Over 13 million pounds of pork bellies were forward-booked in May, the fifth highest volume in ten years.
Historical data shows belly prices rise an average of $0.20/lb the month following such large bookings.
Outlook: Widespread retail promotions, with 90% of retailers promoting in June, are likely to lift belly prices.
Key Drivers:
Strong demand for breakfast and dinner sausages, combined with widespread hot dog promotions, is building sausage demand.
Seasonally-smaller supply is pushing pork trim prices higher.
Outlook:
Picnic cushion meat prices are expected to follow pork trim and picnic prices higher in June.
This comprehensive research empowers you to make informed business decisions. The information contained in this monthly market update is for informational purposes only. It represents our best estimates of commodity market conditions and is subject to change without notice. While we strive to provide accurate information, Gordon Food Service cannot guarantee the completeness or accuracy of the content. Any reliance you place on this information is strictly at your own risk.
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