Published on August 10, 2026
Hog slaughter typically reaches its annual low in mid-summer, forcing end users to utilize frozen inventory. However, June frozen inventory grew 1% while the long-term average is a 7% reduction. Sales are soft, potentially due to reduced SNAP payments, fewer immigrants, or higher gas prices. The USDA expects per-capita pork supply to increase 3% from Q2. Given recent demand weakness, pork prices are expected to ease through the month.
Key Drivers:
Pork butt exports were 30 million pounds smaller in Q2, leaving 5% more production for domestic sale.
Frozen butt inventory grew 8% in June, a sharp contrast to the usual 16% seasonal drawdown.
Outlook: While lower prices may revive exports, domestic demand is typically slower in August and supply will increase as weather cools. Prices fell in 8 of the last 10 Augusts.
Key Drivers:
Bone-in ham prices often hit a seasonal peak around August 1st before trending lower as autumn production ramps up.
Unusually high frozen inventories could accelerate the seasonal price decline this year.
Outlook: Lower bone-in ham costs could shift more supply to boning lines, potentially weighing on boneless ham prices higher in August.
Key Drivers:
Frozen rib inventories declined by only 9 million pounds in June, leaving month-end inventories at a three-year high.
With the official end of grilling season, packers are focused on cleaning up inventories heading into Labor Day.
Outlook: Owning frozen ribs after Labor Day is an unattractive option for packers; prices often trend lower in August as inventory is liquidated.
Key Drivers:
July exports reached record levels, supported by low prices and a weak U.S. dollar, keeping U.S. loins competitive globally.
Forward sales to retailers were the largest since 2022, suggesting an increase in August promotional activity.
Outlook: Chicken breast remains on promotion for less than pork loins; boneless loin prices may drift lower to keep prices competitive.
Key Drivers:
Local homegrown tomato availability is beginning to lift retail BLT demand, despite the slowest draw from freezer inventories since 2022.
Bacon sales are currently hobbled by slow Quick-Service Restaurant (QSR) sales across the industry.
Outlook: Continued strong retail demand is essential to sustaining price strength in the face of soft foodservice performance.
Key Drivers:
Exports of pork trim and picnics dropped sharply in June, though they began to pick up again in July.
Fewer retail promotions recently forced prices lower to clear excess domestic supplies.
Outlook: Picnic cushion meat prices may benefit from steady pork picnic prices and upcoming Labor Day sausage promotions.
This comprehensive research empowers you to make informed business decisions. The information contained in this monthly market update is for informational purposes only. It represents our best estimates of commodity market conditions and is subject to change without notice. While we strive to provide accurate information, Gordon Food Service cannot guarantee the completeness or accuracy of the content. Any reliance you place on this information is strictly at your own risk.
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