Published on March 10th, 2026
Iowa State University estimates hog producers earned $27/head in 2025 versus $5/head in 2024. Despite improved profits, February slaughter was down 1% versus the 1% projected by the last USDA survey. Reports of increased PEDv infections suggest it may be reducing slaughter again. The USDA survey indicates March slaughter could be down 1%, which could be reduced even further by disease. Expectations of smaller supply may explain why hog futures are 8% higher than last year.
Key Drivers: Pork butts remain one of the few items shoppers can find on special near $2/lb, keeping them moving well all season.
Warmer weather in the South and West is expected to begin lifting demand in March.
Outlook: March pork butt prices have increased in nine out of the last ten years as seasonal demand begins to shift.
Key Drivers: Freezer inventories of ham were 6% higher than 2025 in January, providing ample supply for Easter processing.
Prices unexpectedly went down in February despite an early Easter this year, which typically sees gearing up.
Outlook: Easter ham processing will be winding down by mid-March, suggesting ham prices may not do much this month.
Key Drivers:
Frozen inventory levels are ahead of last year, suggesting the pace of inventory accumulation may slow down.
Fewer ribs going into the freezer leaves more for sale in spot markets, potentially offsetting 10-year high prices.
Outlook: Rib prices could pause until we get closer to grilling season, despite high current price levels.
Key Drivers:
Loin exports accounted for one-third of all loins sold year-to-date, marking another new record.
Asian markets are shifting purchases away from Spain due to concerns over African swine fever near Barcelona.
Outlook: With more loins going offshore, retailers are competing for inventory, which should keep prices steady into March.
Key Drivers:
Belly inventories have been building at a faster pace than last year, though accumulation may slow in March.
Bacon is on promotion at nearly every grocery store at feature prices similar to last year.
Outlook: Retail demand may be peaking, with belly prices expected to level out soon.
Key Drivers:
Record-low sow slaughter has tightened pork trim supply overall, which is supporting picnic prices.
Demand for cushion meat normally increases in March.
Outlook: Cushion meat prices have gone up in nine of the last ten Marches and are likely to continue following picnic prices higher.
This comprehensive research empowers you to make informed business decisions. The information contained in this monthly market update is for informational purposes only. It represents our best estimates of commodity market conditions and is subject to change without notice. While we strive to provide accurate information, Gordon Food Service cannot guarantee the completeness or accuracy of the content. Any reliance you place on this information is strictly at your own risk.
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