Published on May 4, 2026
The USDA lowered its 2026 per-capita pork supply estimate to unchanged from 2025. Lean hog futures currently suggest prices will average 2% lower for the balance of the year. However, pork supply declines seasonally as we enter summer because hogs consume less feed during hot weather. As supply declines, pork prices rise, a predictable seasonal uptrend which is reflected in the 4% premium May hog futures have over April.
Key Drivers:
The supply pipeline starts building well in advance of Memorial Day, which officially kicks off BBQ pork season.
Pork butt availability is starting to tighten as both retail and food service build inventories for peak summer demand.
Outlook: Supply will start to shrink seasonally in May, providing additional price support. Butt prices increased in 9 out of the last 10 Mays.
Key Drivers:
Mexico accounts for 40% of all U.S. pork exports, and bone-in ham prices are benefiting from the 13% increase in the value of the Mexican peso.
Budget concerns are impacting lunchmeat sales, but ham exports remain booming.
Outlook: As pork production shrinks and export demand remains high, tighter supplies of raw material should boost boneless ham prices in May.
Key Drivers:
Both frozen inventory and production levels are currently consistent with levels seen over the last couple of years.
Prices are currently tracking very close to last year’s performance.
Outlook: Sparerib prices were mostly flat last summer; the market may follow that same price path again this year.
Key Drivers:
Retail demand across fresh beef, pork loins, and chicken breast saw a slight step back in April.
Exports are expected to continue strong as the market enters the summer grilling season.
Outlook: Bone-in loin sales should grow with grilling demand, and the seasonal production decline may keep prices steady in May.
Key Drivers:
Bacon promotion numbers and feature prices are tracking very similarly to last year’s levels.
Cold storage inventories are currently near the ten-year average, providing no compelling reason for inventory shifts.
Outlook: While April saw price weakness due to slower demand, seasonally-lower production should keep prices steady in May.
Key Drivers:
Pork trim and picnic prices have been drifting lower, partly due to fewer breakfast sausage promotions in April.
Monthly averages in 2026 have remained stable, with fluctuations limited to 5% or less.
Outlook: Despite slipping a few cents in recent weeks, cushion meat prices could continue to trend sideways.
This comprehensive research empowers you to make informed business decisions. The information contained in this monthly market update is for informational purposes only. It represents our best estimates of commodity market conditions and is subject to change without notice. While we strive to provide accurate information, Gordon Food Service cannot guarantee the completeness or accuracy of the content. Any reliance you place on this information is strictly at your own risk.
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