Published on November 9, 2026
Pork production in the world’s top three producers—China, the EU, and the U.S.—has leveled out due to low prices. Surplus supply has discouraged imports, particularly in China, where world pork trade is down 20%. Brazil’s low labor and feed costs have allowed them to shift exports toward traditional U.S. markets like Mexico and South Korea, placing significant downward pressure on U.S. prices.
Key Drivers:
October pork butt exports reached a ten-year low due to shrinking overseas sales and competition from Brazil.
Processors are unwilling to build frozen inventory, leading to aggressive discounting to keep fresh product moving.
Outlook: Packers will continue to lower prices to move fresh butts as they offset lower revenue by paying less for hogs.
Key Drivers:
Exports to Mexico are projected to be 20% lower this fall, following a sustained unfavorable trend.
Bone-in ham prices recently fell below $0.60/lb, marking a five-year low for the category.
Outlook: Boneless ham prices are expected to drop as the lower cost of bone-in hams reduces production expenses for processors.
Key Drivers:
Summer frozen inventory liquidation was less than half of the 10-year average, leaving surplus stock.
Retail buyers are currently holding out, waiting for better price offers on frozen inventory.
Outlook: Rib prices could drop further as pork production continues to ramp up amid weak demand.
Key Drivers:
Average export levels in October have left the domestic market oversupplied with loin product.
While promoted in 75% of retail outlets, loins face intense competition from low-cost chicken breast.
Outlook: Packers will continue to discount boneless loins to maintain movement in a crowded protein market.
Key Drivers:
Belly prices plummeted in September following the end of BLT season and have yet to recover.
Stagnant Quick-Service Restaurant (QSR) volumes and a lack of bacon-topped value meals are softening demand.
Outlook: Current low prices are attracting freezer programs, but many buyers are waiting for spring demand to pick up.
Key Drivers:
Demand for pork trim and picnics is failing to keep pace with expanding supply levels.
Increased availability of cheaper beef trim may be contributing to the lack of demand for cushion meat.
Outlook: Prices are already at near-record lows, providing the strongest argument for price stability through November.
This comprehensive research empowers you to make informed business decisions. The information contained in this monthly market update is for informational purposes only. It represents our best estimates of commodity market conditions and is subject to change without notice. While we strive to provide accurate information, Gordon Food Service cannot guarantee the completeness or accuracy of the content. Any reliance you place on this information is strictly at your own risk.
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