Published on May 4, 2026
Fed cattle harvest weights in March posted all-time highs. While cattle on feed numbers are similar to last year, 18% more have been on feed beyond 150 days and 91% more beyond 180 days. Q1 2026 beef production was down 4% from 2025, pushing wholesale prices up 8%. However, increased marbling has led to a 36% jump in Prime beef production since 2019, significantly increasing availability for retail and club stores. Average weights have mostly offset reduced slaughter numbers, with the percentage of cattle grading Choice or Prime up 6%.
Key Drivers:
Lean beef from domestic cows dropped 26% since 2022, but this was more than offset by a 2,080 million pound rise in beef import.
Lean beef supply is up 7% so far in 2026, yet prices remain near $4/lb as consumers migrate from expensive muscle cuts.
Outlook: Ground beef prices usually increase in May as grilling demand heats up, continuing the climb from $2.52/lb seen in 2022.
Key Drivers:
April is typically a slower month, and lower prices attracted more forward bookings for Spring promotions at 12-15% below 2025.
Widespread retail features at attractive prices are expected to quickly clean up relatively small supplies.
Outlook: Ribeye prices went up every May after a price decline in April; expect grilling season demand to push prices higher.
Key Drivers: Prices leveled out in April, allowing retailers to forward book May promotions at prices similar to last year.
Packers are keeping a tight rein on supply as grilling season begins to add more demand.
Outlook: Total loads booked are up from last year. The typical seasonal price uptrend is expected to repeat this May.
Key Drivers:
Sirloins reached all-time highs recently, causing consumer migration. Retailers started discounting in early April to realign with other cuts.
April promotion prices were $13.50/lb, comparable to bone-in ribeyes, which eroded the traditional sirloin cost advantage.
Outlook: As other steak prices perk up in May, sirloin prices are expected to firm up and stabilize.
Key Drivers:
Prices remain strong as wealthier consumers are less price-sensitive to the bumps caused by reduced packer supply.
Market activity is currently focused on the peak demand period around Mother’s Day.
Outlook: Prices often take a break after Mother’s Day buying winds down, so May prices may average close to April levels.
Key Drivers:
Packers have kept fed cattle slaughter 10-15% below 2025 levels to shore up prices, leading briskets to trade 30% above last year.
Improving grilling demand combined with tight supply is keeping prices in an uptrend.
Outlook: Briskets have gone up in seven of the last ten Mays; expect this trend to continue as long as supply remains constrained.
Key Drivers:
Outside skirt prices often reach an annual peak in April or May following sharp price runups.
The market is currently adjusting after a period of volatility and record high costs.
Outlook: It looks as if prices may have peaked in April this year and could gradually decline into the summer months.
Key Drivers:
With wintertime demand for beef roasts ending, packers have been forced to lower asking prices to keep rounds moving.
Prices are now low enough that it makes sense to divert raw material to ground beef rather than packing muscle cuts.
Outlook: Inside round prices are expected to stabilize and begin to follow ground beef prices higher by mid-May.
This comprehensive research empowers you to make informed business decisions. The information contained in this monthly market update is for informational purposes only. It represents our best estimates of commodity market conditions and is subject to change without notice. While we strive to provide accurate information, Gordon Food Service cannot guarantee the completeness or accuracy of the content. Any reliance you place on this information is strictly at your own risk.
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