Published on November 9, 2026
The supply side of the beef business remains bullish long-term, with placements of calves in feedlots down 9% in the last five months. However, the demand side is starting to look tired; the average price for all beef cuts slipped in October, with only ribs and chucks showing gains. Affordability has been top-of-mind for many consumers, which may not play well for high-priced beef. Barring new developments, prices are expected to stay on their usual sideways trend, as they have remained mostly unchanged in each of the last five Novembers.
Key Drivers:
Fed cattle slaughter has fallen 16% since 2022, but ground beef supply, boosted by imports, is up 18% in the same timeframe.
Ground beef represents half of all beef consumed; total beef supply is up and prices are 45% higher, indicating very strong demand.
Outlook: Imported lean beef and ground beef prices remain steady, trading close to last year’s level despite uncertainty regarding recent tariff waivers.
Key Drivers:
Forward booking and promotional activity have dropped to low levels recently. Supplies remain tight but buyers are cautious.
Everyday boneless choice ribeye steaks are mostly $20/lb or more, with very few items found on special for $18/lb.
Outlook: As we get closer to Christmas, holiday demand could make supplies even tighter. Ribeye prices could level out until late November.
Key Drivers:
T-bones and NY strips are widely promoted in early November. Boneless NY strip steaks are featured at $13/lb, an unusually large discount to ribeyes.
Supplies are becoming more available, though smaller forward bookings in October suggest promotional activity will soon wind down.
Outlook: Reduced retail demand could allow strip prices to adjust lower in November.
Key Drivers:
Top sirloin steaks are featured at $9/lb. Sirloin remains a quality upgrade from round steaks for a small cost compared to NY strips at $13/lb.
Casual dining sales have been mixed, which has slowed sirloin sales through that specific channel.
Outlook: As retail and food service sales level out, top sirloin prices may stay flat in November.
Key Drivers:
Tenderloin steak prices are holding near $24/lb. Retailers have avoided forward booking, so there is no big push in either direction.
Tenderloins moving into November will have enough shelf life to make it through the Christmas holiday season.
Outlook: Prices are trending seasonally upward; tenderloin prices have gone up in 9 out of the last 10 Novembers.
Key Drivers:
A lack of new brisket item launches among restaurant chains is notable. Processors are substituting cheaper Mexican briskets in value-added products.
Retailers have noted that brisket prices are currently below last year’s levels, leading to forward booking for November promotions.
Outlook: Prices may bottom out soon as retail features launch. Overall brisket supply has been boosted by the use of imported alternatives.
Key Drivers:
Outside skirt prices are finding a bottom as they typically do this time of year.
Reduced slaughter, driven by rising cattle prices and shrinking packer margins, is expected to tighten supply.
Outlook: Reduced slaughter should tighten supply enough to stabilize skirt prices through the end of the year.
Key Drivers:
Warm weather is delaying the seasonal shift to home-prepared comfort foods, which typically boosts round roast popularity.
Prices have to stay low enough to keep surplus round cuts flowing into ground beef production.
Outlook: With ground beef prices having stabilized, inside round prices could level out for now.
This comprehensive research empowers you to make informed business decisions. The information contained in this monthly market update is for informational purposes only. It represents our best estimates of commodity market conditions and is subject to change without notice. While we strive to provide accurate information, Gordon Food Service cannot guarantee the completeness or accuracy of the content. Any reliance you place on this information is strictly at your own risk.
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