Published on April 13, 2026
Feedlot placements have been greater than sales in five of the last six months, bringing inventories back even with last March. More cattle are approaching the 185 days-on-feed target, suggesting increased availability for April. Packers slashed fed cattle slaughter by 8% in Q1 to regain profitability, but as we enter grilling season, demand increases may allow for higher slaughter rates without sacrificing margins. Overall, stronger demand may allow beef production to rise at steady prices.
Key Drivers:
Cow slaughter has been running 2% below 2025 levels, though expanding dairy cow slaughter is partially offsetting lower beef cow kills.
Ground beef is featured in nearly every retail outlet with prices about 12% above last year.
Outlook: Ground beef prices went up in 8 of the last 10 Aprils. Tighter consumer budgets are expected to push demand toward ground beef as grilling season heats up.
Key Drivers:
Ribeyes were widely promoted for Easter, which lifted prices in March. Currently, ribeyes are featured for $2/lb more than strip steaks.
Outlook: Retailers may shift promotional activity to other steak cuts as increased production becomes available. Ribeye prices could top out in April, trending lower by late month.
Key Drivers: Retail features are averaging $13/lb for boneless strip steaks, positioning them between more expensive ribeyes and value sirloins.
Grilling season is adding significant demand pressure to the market.
Outlook: Strip prices went up in 8 of the last 10 Aprils, but increasing cattle slaughter and supply may limit the size of this year’s price increase.
Key Drivers:
Sirloins remain one of the few value steak options, with recent feature prices at $7.50/lb for ball-tips and $10/lb for top sirloin.
Outlook: As other steak prices stop rising rapidly in April, top butt and ball-tip prices could top out and follow the broader trend toward stability.
Key Drivers:
Tighter supplies pushed tenderloin prices to a new record high for March. Steaks are currently selling for $22/lb.
If cattle slaughter increases as expected in April, the market may accommodate demand without further price hikes.
Outlook: While March prices increased in 8 of the last 10 years, it may be hard to take prices higher while supplies are increasing through April.
Key Drivers:
Smaller beef supplies lifted brisket prices in March, bringing them in line with end cuts like rounds.
Increased April production is expected to be balanced by improving seasonal grill demand.
Outlook: Briskets have gone up in half of the last ten Aprils. Prices are likely to remain steady or see slight increases depending on the strength of grilling demand.
Key Drivers:
Outside skirt prices often reach an annual peak in April or May, following sharp price runups like the one recently experienced.
Outlook: If packers increase beef production this April as projected, the additional supply could put a lid on further skirt steak price increases.
Key Drivers:
Winter demand for beef roasts is winding down, causing round demand to lose momentum.
Increased beef supply is entering the market, creating a logical path for lower prices.
Outlook: Inside round prices should continue on the downtrend that started in late March as retailers shift focus toward grilling items.
This comprehensive research empowers you to make informed business decisions. The information contained in this monthly market update is for informational purposes only. It represents our best estimates of commodity market conditions and is subject to change without notice. While we strive to provide accurate information, Gordon Food Service cannot guarantee the completeness or accuracy of the content. Any reliance you place on this information is strictly at your own risk.
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