Published on May 4, 2026
Retail beef prices have been essentially flat for the first five months of 2026, creating a ceiling for the beef cutout at around $3.80. Packers reduced cattle slaughter by 7% in April to force beef prices higher or cattle prices lower. While Memorial Day peak demand has passed, wholesale prices remained flat. Feedlots are currently holding cattle longer to wait for higher bids, causing May 1 inventories to grow 2% higher than last year. Packers are facing record losses and continue to restrict slaughter, though feedlots may eventually have to accept lower cattle prices if demand remains soft.
Key Drivers:
Total lean beef supply jumped 13% in Q1 as a 227 million pound surge in imports offset a 53 million pound decline in domestic production.
High steak prices are shifting consumer demand toward ground beef, though supply is currently keeping pace.
Outlook: Ground beef prices increase two-thirds of the time in June. May prices were up 5.5% over April, and this June may be another close call for price increases.
Key Drivers:
Prices have been tracking below 2025 levels since late March as rising gasoline prices eroded discretionary income.
Forward bookings for May were slightly higher than last year but remain within normal ranges.
Outlook: Upcoming Father’s Day and Independence Day offer demand opportunities, but unless gasoline prices drop, demand may not be strong enough to lift prices.
Key Drivers:
Production is currently 3-4% lower than last year, though prices have tracked close to 2025 levels since a March stall.
Feature prices of $11.50 for t-bones and $16.50 for boneless strips make them $3-$5/lb cheaper than ribeyes.
Outlook:
Retailers are featuring strips at nearly half of all stores. Strong grilling demand could be enough to lift prices a little in June.
Key Drivers:
Prices adjusted lower over the last 60 days as high gasoline prices impacted consumer spending power.
Ball-tip sizzlers at $9.50/lb and top sirloin steaks at $11.00/lb remain attractive options for peak grilling season.
Outlook: Significant demand headwinds, particularly in full-service restaurants, suggest that sirloin prices will be lucky to hold steady in June.
Key Drivers:
Prices have remained strong as wealthier consumers continue to buy despite price bumps and supply cuts by packers.
Packers have been cutting supply, requiring price increases to manage demand from less price-sensitive consumers.
Outlook:
Tenderloin prices often trend sideways into the summer. Expect June prices to average close to May levels.
Key Drivers:
Retailers forward-booked 8 million pounds of briskets in May, a strong indicator of upcoming retail features for June.
Briskets are currently the lowest-cost whole-muscle beef cut available for grilling for budget-conscious shoppers.
Outlook: Forward contract pricing matches current spot costs, suggesting steady prices ahead. Historically, briskets have gone up in seven of the last ten Junes.
Key Drivers:
Outside skirt prices typically reach their annual peak in April or May, often following a sharp spring runup.
Prices appear to have hit their 2026 peak in May and are now beginning their seasonal move lower.
Outlook: Following the May peak, prices for outside skirts are expected to gradually decline throughout the summer months.
Key Drivers:
Warmer weather has ended the retail demand for roasts, leaving a surplus of round cuts on the market.
Excess round cuts are being diverted to ground beef production as they are trading at the same price as 85% beef trim.
Outlook: While roast demand is down, the diversion to the ground beef market means inside round prices should follow ground beef prices higher in June.
This comprehensive research empowers you to make informed business decisions. The information contained in this monthly market update is for informational purposes only. It represents our best estimates of commodity market conditions and is subject to change without notice. While we strive to provide accurate information, Gordon Food Service cannot guarantee the completeness or accuracy of the content. Any reliance you place on this information is strictly at your own risk.
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