Published on May 4, 2026
Chicken production is back up to a 3% rate of increase, but smaller (<3.0 lb) whole chicken production is down 5% as the industry continues shifting to heavier weights. Whole and rotisserie chickens are being promoted at half of retail outlets, quite a few more than last year. Grab-and-go deli items have been especially popular as a cost-saving option to fast food restaurants. Demand has been steady, mostly balanced with available supplies, leading prices to trend sideways.
Key Drivers:
Production is up 3%, but demand has not kept pace, resulting in chicken breast promotions in 75% of grocery stores.
Feature prices are approximately $2.75/lb, which is 15% lower than last summer’s rates.
Retail pack sizes are selling well, but bulk breast meat remains slow due to sluggish food service demand.
Outlook:
New chicken sandwich launches and summer vacation travel may breathe life into food service demand, providing price support.
Key Drivers:
Following recent price drops in breast meat, thigh meat is now $0.62/lb more expensive than breast meat.
Historically, when thigh meat reaches a $0.20/lb premium over breast meat, prices typically decline in the following month.
Potential substitution of breast meat for thigh meat in recipes is likely to further pressure prices.
Outlook: Thigh meat prices may have peaked for the year as market dynamics favor more affordable breast meat alternatives.
Key Drivers:
Retail promotions of party wings at $1/lb are helping to stimulate consumer demand as summer begins.
The upcoming World Cup soccer event is expected to provide a significant boost to wing consumption.
Outlook: Wing prices hit a seasonal low in May and are now inching higher as peak demand season approaches.
Key Drivers:
Frozen turkey production was up 9% through May, while hen slaughter ran 5% ahead of last year.
April 30th frozen whole turkey inventories were at an all-time low, keeping buyers nervous about availability.
The risk of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) continues to motivate accelerated buying among wholesalers.
Outlook: Low inventories are keeping whole turkey prices high. If the industry builds inventory at a normal pace, stocks may recover to 2025 levels by August.
This comprehensive research empowers you to make informed business decisions. The information contained in this monthly market update is for informational purposes only. It represents our best estimates of commodity market conditions and is subject to change without notice. While we strive to provide accurate information, Gordon Food Service cannot guarantee the completeness or accuracy of the content. Any reliance you place on this information is strictly at your own risk.
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