Published on November 9, 2026
Chicken processors expanded in 2026, betting on smaller beef supplies, but extra demand never materialized. Following industry cutbacks, production is now running just 1% above last year. While chicken prices dropped to near 5-year lows earlier in the year and have not yet recovered, the tightening of supplies has successfully kept them from falling further in the current market environment.
Key Drivers:
Mexico banned poultry imports from Brazil due to Newcastle disease, shifting breast meat purchases to the U.S.
Increased export demand to Mexico has been enough to clean up previous U.S. surplus supplies.\Rising chicken sandwich sales and increased QSR demand during the holiday travel season are bolstering the market.
Outlook: Lower production and improved exports are expected to give a lift to extremely cheap chicken breast prices.
Key Drivers:
Brazil’s disease issues are boosting U.S. leg quarter sales, providing support for thigh meat prices.
While demand often slows in the fall, current prices still make deboning more profitable than leg quarter sales.
A 10% price drop would be required to shift production toward leg quarters and align supply with demand.
Outlook: Thigh and leg meat supplies are building, but current market conditions are pressuring prices higher.
Key Drivers:
Jumbo wing prices peaked in the summer and have declined, with a historical trend of falling in November.
Same-store sales at Wingstop are down 7.2% due to slower foot traffic, mirroring trends at other wing-themed venues.
Increased competition from low-cost boneless wings is reducing demand for traditional jumbo bone-in wings.
Outlook: Reduced demand and lower traffic at sports venues are creating a surplus, drifting prices lower.
Key Drivers:
Hen turkey slaughter is currently tracking 4% below the 5-year average, leading to potential availability issues.
Weights are skewing heavier this year, which may force consumers to settle for larger birds than preferred.
Supply is currently sufficient to meet baseline holiday needs, but size variety is limited.
Outlook: Market supply and pricing are holding steady heading into the holiday season, though heavier bird weights will predominate.
This comprehensive research empowers you to make informed business decisions. The information contained in this monthly market update is for informational purposes only. It represents our best estimates of commodity market conditions and is subject to change without notice. While we strive to provide accurate information, Gordon Food Service cannot guarantee the completeness or accuracy of the content. Any reliance you place on this information is strictly at your own risk.
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