Published on November 13, 2025
Despite the Federal Government shutdown, the Ag Marketing Service of the USDA is still reporting beef and cattle pricing and some slaughter data. Based on their information, fed cattle slaughter is running 6-8% below 2024. With cattle weights averaging 3% higher, boxed beef pounds are down 3-5% from last year. Beef steak and roast prices are currently running 17% higher than last year, and during peak demand this summer, prices shot up 25% over 2024. As holiday demand kicks in later this month, beef prices could get another lift.
Key Drivers:
Cow slaughter is the highest since last March, driven by a rapid expansion of the dairy herd. This increases supply and helps offset a 15% rise in imported lean beef costs.
Most retailers are running promotions with feature prices around $5.50/lb to drive traffic.
Outlook: If lower retail pricing stimulates sales, wholesale ground beef prices could recover and average higher for the month.
Key Drivers:
Ribeyes have been trending sideways as the market transitions from grilling season to peak Christmas demand.
Retailers will increase orders by mid-month to support holiday features.
Outlook: November ribeye prices were higher than October in 9 out of the last 10 years, indicating a likely seasonal uptrend.
Key Drivers:
Retail feature prices are around $12/lb for t-bones or $14/lb for boneless strips at about half of retail outlets, cheaper than last month.
This competitive pricing could trigger off-season purchases.
Outlook: November strip prices increased in each of the last two years, and 2025 looks to repeat that trend.
Key Drivers:
Sirloin steak prices have been up all year due to smaller beef supplies, and were 50% higher than 2024 in the summer quarter.
With grilling demand over, prices are still 20% above last year, but retailers are now shifting promotions to sirloins at around $10/lb.
Outlook: Top sirloin prices could get a lift from retail promotions as demand for value-driven steaks increases.
Key Drivers:
Retailers have stopped promoting tenderloins due to high wholesale prices making features unattractive.
As mid-November approaches, retailers will ramp up orders for holiday demand, as tenderloins have enough shelf life until Christmas.
Outlook: Tenderloin prices increased in 20 of the last 23 Novembers, suggesting a likely rise in the coming weeks.
Key Drivers:
Brisket prices averaged 30% higher this summer, driven by peak retail and food service demand.
Retailers have stopped promoting briskets, but prices remain only 20% higher than last year, indicating balanced supply and demand.
Outlook: History suggests brisket prices could move sideways in November as retail demand slows and supply balances.
Key Drivers:
Skirt steak prices are holding above last year due to reduced slaughter rates.
The usual downward price adjustment at the end of grilling season is likely complete.
Outlook: Skirt steak prices often stabilize this time of year, suggesting a steady trend into year-end.
Key Drivers:
Retail interest is picking up for winter-time roasts, with over 40% of stores running promotions near $6.50/lb.
Flats and insides are trading at their relative beef trim value, providing packers a home for any surpluses.
Outlook: If ground beef prices rebound, round prices may be supported, potentially stabilizing or slightly firming.
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