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MARKET INTELLIGENCE
Produce Trends
Published on October 8, 2025
Fresh Crop Reports
The cost of produce rises and falls with seasonality, demand, and produce yields. Weekly Fresh Crop Reports help you stay ahead of the game by taking a look at how things are trending, how to use produce, and the current quality.
Seasonal Trends
Stay ahead of the curve with Markon’s Summer 2025 Trends! Discover the hottest trends like flavor flights and GLP-1 inclusive dining. Refresh your menu, attract new customers, and boost your bottom line.
Vegetables
Russet Potatoes
Steady
ID (70 & 90 ct.) is steady with moderate supply and demand.
Red Potatoes
Steady
MN & WI are steady with moderate supply and demand.
Yellow Potatoes
Steady
WI is steady with moderate supply and demand.
Round Green Cabbage
Steady
NY and Mexico product is steady with moderate supply and demand.
Green Leaf Lettuce
Up
Up from Salinas, CA. Supply is tightening due to weather. Markets are volatile.
Romaine Lettuce
Up
Up from Salinas, CA. Supply is tightening due to weather. Markets are volatile.
Iceberg Lettuce
Steady
Up significantly from Salinas, CA. Supply is tightening due to weather. Markets are volatile.
Garlic
Steady
Supply and pricing are expected to be steady until late fall 2025.Up significantly from Salinas, CA. Supply is tightening due to weather. Markets are volatile.
Onions
Mixed
WA/OR is down; ID/OR is steady.
Mushrooms
Steady
Supply is steady and expected to remain so.
Cilantro
Up
Central Coast, CA (30’s and 60’s) are up.
Cucumbers
Mixed
MI/GA & Mexico (TX crossing) are down; Mexico (Otay Mesa crossing) is up.
Celery
Up
Up from Salinas, CA, with moderate supply and demand.
Summer Squash
Steady
Up from Salinas, CA, with moderate supply and demand.
Green Beans
Steady
Steady from NY, with moderate supply and demand.
Carrots
Steady
Steady from CA, with moderate supply and demand.
Cauliflower
Up
Up from Salinas, CA. Supply is tightening due to weather. Markets are volatile.
Asparagus
Up
Up from Peru, with moderate supply and demand.
Broccoli
Up
Up from Salinas, CA. Supply is tightening due to weather. Markets are volatile.
Green Bell Peppers
Steady
Steady from MI, with moderate supply and demand.
Red Bell Peppers
Steady
Steady from MI, with moderate supply and demand.
Jalapeño Peppers
Steady
Jalapeños from Mexico are steady.
Red Round Tomatoes
Down
Down from Mexico.
Roma Tomatoes
Down
Down from Mexico.
Small Tomatoes
Mixed
Cherry (AL) are down; Grape (Mexico) are steady.
Green Onions
Down
Down from Mexico.
Hanging Fruit
Apples
Mixed
Honeycrisp & Golden Delicious are down; Fuji, Gala, Granny Smith, Red Delicious, and Pink Lady are steady.
Pears
Down
Down from WA, with moderate supply and demand.
Lemons
Steady
Steady from CA, with moderate supply and demand.
Limes
Down
Down from Mexico (200’s & 250’s).
Oranges
Up
Up from Salinas, CA. Supply is tightening due to weather. Markets are volatile.
Berries, Tropical & Melons
Strawberries
Up
Honeycrisp & Golden Delicious are down; Fuji, Gala, Granny Smith, Red Delicious, and Pink Lady are steady.
Grapes
Steady
Steady from CA, with moderate supply and demand.
Pineapples
Mixed
5, 6, and 7 counts are down; 8 count is steady.
Bananas
Down
Down from Mexico (200’s & 250’s).
Oranges
Up
Up from Salinas, CA. Supply is tightening due to weather. Markets are volatile.
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
Beef Trends
Published on October 8, 2025
Overall Cattle Market
Cattle on feed numbers are actually close to the 10-year average despite the second lowest August placements ever. The key has been the lowest marketings in ten years as feedlots hold cattle longer to keep pens full. The number of cattle on feed over 150 days is the largest since reporting began in 1996. The number of cattle slaughtered so far this year is down 7%, but beef production is only off 4% thanks to heavier cattle weights. Larger beef imports, especially from Brazil, have offset smaller domestic production. Now that Brazilian imports are subject to a 50% tariff, the USDA projects 2026 beef imports will fall and cattle prices will average 9% higher than in 2025.
Supply
Price
Ground Beef
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Domestic beef production is down 4%, but imports surged 23% this year, lifting total availability up 3%. Over half of increased imports came from Brazil.
A 50% reciprocal tariff on Brazilian imports took effect August 6th, causing beef trimmings prices to jump.
Outlook: As grilling season ends, demand is slowing. More domestic cuts are becoming cheap enough for ground beef, potentially causing prices to slip in October despite higher import costs.
Ribeyes
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Prices saw small declines as grilling season closes, but warm weather is keeping ribeyes on promotion at 30% of retail stores.
Outlook: Retailers start buying for the holidays in mid-October. After a brief dip, prices are expected to begin a seasonal uptrend that extends into December.
Strips
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
With boneless strips at $17/lb, they remain an attractive value relative to ribeyes.
Strip and t-bone steaks have become a popular fall feature item with a dedicated following.
Outlook: Strip prices have bottomed out in September for the last two years, and 2025 looks to be a repeat of that trend.
Sirloin
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Prices have been up all year due to smaller supplies.
Summer grilling demand sent prices sharply higher, up 50% over the three-year average compared to just 15% in Q1.
Outlook: With grilling demand ending, prices may return to the smaller 15% premium seen in Q1. Top sirloin prices have declined in nine of the last ten Octobers.
Tenderloins
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Steaks are now promoted at $32/lb, out of reach for most budgets.
Wealthy consumers seem willing to pay high prices as long as home and stock market values are strong.
Outlook: There is a lull between the end of grilling season and the start of holiday buying. Prices could ease back from record highs until we get closer to Christmas.
Briskets
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Prices were 30% higher than last year due to peak summer retail and food service demand.
Only 10% of retailers are promoting briskets, signaling the end of grilling season, but food service demand remains strong.
Outlook: Reduced slaughter is limiting supply, which is supporting prices despite lower retail demand. Prices could level out in October.
Skirt Steak
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Prices remain above last year due to reduced slaughter rates.
Cooling grilling demand is keeping prices in a seasonal downtrend.
Outlook: Skirt steak prices have averaged lower in ten of the last ten Octobers, and this year is expected to follow that trend.
Rounds
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Retail interest has cooled, with only 17% of stores running promotions.
Flats and insides are trading at trim value, allowing them to be used in ground beef and providing an alternative to escalating import costs.
Outlook: As reduced demand pressures domestic trim prices lower, round prices may follow ground beef prices down.
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
Pork Trends
Published on October 8, 2025
Overall Hog Market
The Swine Health Information Center reports that overall Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRSV) cases were below expectations in August. As a result, September hog slaughter was unchanged from 2024, versus down 3% in August. The combination of less disease and the normal Fall improvement in rate-of-gain gave us 4% more hogs in September. Slaughter normally goes up another 3-4% in October. Lean hog futures suggest pork prices will drop 10% from September into October.
Supply
Price
Pork Butts
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Price graphs and monthly exports for pork butts in 2025 are tracking very closely to 2023 patterns.
Outlook: If 2023 repeats, exports will strengthen but won’t offset larger supply and slower demand, leading to price declines. October butt prices fell in nine of the last ten years.
Hams
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
August frozen ham inventories were the lowest for the month since the early 2000s, meaning holiday demand will rely on current production.
High turkey prices may cause retailers to shift holiday features to ham, as seen in 2022.
Outlook: While historical odds are 50/50, low inventories and high turkey prices point to higher ham prices in October.
Ribs
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Ribs are on promotion at half of all retail outlets, which is unusually high for this time of year.
Attractive feature prices ($2.70 for spareribs, $3.50 for backribs) are competing well against $6 ground beef.
Inventories are near 10-year lows, so packers are more likely to freeze extra ribs than discount them.
Outlook: Rib prices could remain supported by strong retail and freezer demand.
Loins
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Loin exports continued at record levels in September, with year-to-date sales exceeding last year’s record.
Virtually every retailer has pork loins on promotion with feature prices near $3/lb.
Outlook: Strong exports and improved retail sales could offset bigger production, keeping prices steady.
Bacon
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Retailers continue to promote bacon as BLT season ends, with prices similar to last week and last year.
Cold storage inventories are the lowest since 2021.
Outlook: Increasing production should provide enough supply as BLT demand slows. Belly prices could drift lower as larger hog production adds to supply.
Cushion Meat
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Larger hog supplies and slowing demand for grilling items like hot dogs and bratwurst are starting to push picnic prices lower.
Outlook: Cushion meat prices are likely to follow picnic prices lower in October.
Skirt Steak
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Prices remain above last year due to reduced slaughter rates.
Cooling grilling demand is keeping prices in a seasonal downtrend.
Outlook: Skirt steak prices have averaged lower in ten of the last ten Octobers, and this year is expected to follow that trend.
Rounds
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Retail interest has cooled, with only 17% of stores running promotions.
Flats and insides are trading at trim value, allowing them to be used in ground beef and providing an alternative to escalating import costs.
Outlook: As reduced demand pressures domestic trim prices lower, round prices may follow ground beef prices down.
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
Poultry Trends
Published on October 8, 2025
Overall Chicken Market
The Swine Health Information Center reports that overall Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRSV) cases were below expectations in August. As a result, September hog slaughter was unchanged from 2024, versus down 3% in August. The combination of less disease and the normal Fall improvement in rate-of-gain gave us 4% more hogs in September. Slaughter normally goes up another 3-4% in October. Lean hog futures suggest pork prices will drop 10% from September into October.
Supply
Price
Breast Meat
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Breast meat prices dropped over 90 cents-per-pound in the last two months as processors struggled to place surplus output.
Retailers have breast meat on promotion at 70% of stores, but feature prices are mostly unchanged.
Food service demand is tapering off as kids go back to school.
Outlook: Increased supply at a time when demand is slowing is pressuring prices lower.
Thigh Meat
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Export demand for U.S. leg quarters has cooled as Brazil’s exports recover from avian influenza.
Slowing export demand is shifting more leg quarters to deboning lines.
Lower breast meat prices are also pressuring thigh meat prices.
Outlook: Despite lower prices, processors still make $.30/lb more margin deboning thighs, which means prices can still go lower.
Wings
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Jumbo wing prices have lost $.60/lb in the last six weeks, but retail promotions are not yet widespread.
Boneless wings are gaining market share in restaurants, reducing food service demand for bone-in wings.
Outlook: Reduced demand is creating a surplus of wings, and prices are still drifting lower.
Turkeys
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Wholesale whole bird prices hit $1.65/lb in late September, a level first seen in August 2022 during a similar avian influenza outbreak.
This year’s turkey production is expected to be down 5%, a scenario similar to 2022 when production was down 6%.
Outlook: In 2022, prices continued to trend higher after September, reaching $1.80/lb and holding through Thanksgiving. A similar pattern may emerge this year.
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
Seafood Trends
Published on October 8, 2025
Calamari/Squid
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Limson’s strong supply is meeting demand despite overall market price elevation.
Outlook: Prices will remain elevated, but supply is secure.
Cod Alaskan Shatter Filets 1x
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
The market is well-balanced with no major disruptions affecting supply or price.
Outlook: Stable conditions are expected to continue.
Cod Atlantic Loins 2x
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
A 30% tariff from China, Y-O-Y quota cuts of over 20%, and Russian sanctions are tightening supply.
Outlook: Expect continued limited supply and elevated prices.
Cod Atlantic Shatter Filets/Loins 1x
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Costs for Icelandic cod have risen due to quota cuts, a 15% tariff, and strong EU demand.
Outlook: Pricing will remain high as long as supply is limited.
Cod Pacific Loins 2x
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Tariff uncertainties related to products from China are constricting supply.
Outlook: Prices will remain elevated due to tight supply.
Crab — Snow
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Current inventories are not expected to last until the next season in April 2026, and holiday demand is strong.
Outlook: Pricing on all sizes will increase for the foreseeable future, with a potential holiday surge.
Grouper (Asian)
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Market availability has improved, leading to price stabilization.
Outlook: Pricing is expected to remain firm or decrease slightly.
Haddock
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Limson’s supply is meeting demand, but prices are high due to tariff uncertainties on products from China.
Outlook: Prices will remain elevated.
Hake Filets/Loins
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Weak U.S. demand and diversion of most supply to the EU market are causing limited availability.
Outlook: Supply in the U.S. will continue to be limited.
Euro Lake Perch & Pike Perch
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
The market is ample in stock for all sizes, though inbound tariffs are keeping prices slightly elevated.
Outlook: Prices are expected to remain steady but at an elevated level.
Lake Fish Smelt
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Demand continues to exceed availability, as the 2025 catch has only been about 25% of the 2024 level.
Outlook: Prices are rising to give fishermen more incentive to collect.
Lake Fish Walleye
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Most of the fishing quota was caught before the fall season, leaving little supply for the winter.
Outlook: The remainder of the catch will be caught swiftly, leaving minimal supply over the winter.
Lake Fish White Perch
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
The market currently has ample stock, leading to stable conditions.
Outlook: The market is expected to remain stable.
Lake Fish Yellow Perch
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Overall landings continue to be good, keeping the market stable.
Outlook: The market will remain stable, though winter buy-ins could decrease availability.
Mahi Mahi
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Current fisheries are not producing enough frozen volume to exceed demand, causing prices to rise despite ample stock.
Outlook: Pricing will continue to rise.
Lobster — Meats
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
The overall market is tightening again, putting upward pressure on prices.
Outlook: Frozen inventories are still available, but pricing is on a quick rise.
Mahi Mahi
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
The market is extremely tight as Asian offerings fail to meet U.S. demand.
Outlook: Expect supply gaps and sharp price increases. Relief is not expected until inventories from the South American season arrive in late 2025 or early 2026.
Oysters, Mussels & Clams
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
The market has ample stock, which is keeping conditions stable.
Outlook: The market is expected to remain stable.
Pollock 1x
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
The market has ample stock available for most sizes.
Outlook: Supply for 2-4 oz will be tighter, while 4-6 oz will be more available until A season in 2026.
Pollock 2x
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Ample stock is available, but prices are elevated due to tariff uncertainties from China.
Outlook: Ample stock will keep the price trend steady despite elevated pricing.
Salmon (Farmed) — Chilean
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
The market has ample stock, though prices remain slightly elevated due to tariffs.
Outlook: Prices will remain steady but elevated.
Salmon (Farmed) — Norwegian
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Ample stock is available, but prices are elevated due to tariffs and a weak USD.
Outlook: Prices will remain steady but at an elevated level.
Scallops
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
The 2025 U.S. fishing season is slowing, and 20-25% quota cuts on Japanese scallops are creating knowledge of a shorter supply.
Outlook: All pricing is creeping up due to the anticipated shorter supply for the rest of the year.
Shrimp Black Tiger
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Significant tariffs on major suppliers (India, Vietnam) are forcing a realignment of the global supply chain and driving demand to a smaller pool of suppliers.
Outlook: Expect continued volatility and higher prices, with potential shortages in late 2025 or early 2026.
Shrimp Domestic
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Landing volumes for Gulf shrimp are below normal, while strong demand from processors keeps prices firm.
Outlook: Prices will remain firm. White shrimp catches will be limited until November.
Shrimp White Imported
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
New U.S. tariffs on major suppliers (India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Ecuador) are increasing costs and forcing a major realignment of the global supply chain.
Outlook: Prices will continue to increase, with expected shortages in late 2025 and early 2026.
Swai
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
A 20% tariff on products from Vietnam is the primary reason for the price increase.
Outlook: Prices will be slightly elevated.
Tilapia
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
The market has ample stock, leading to relatively stable pricing.
Outlook: The market is expected to remain stable.
Yellowfin Tuna / Swordfish
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Inbound tariffs are causing prices to creep up despite ample stock and readily available frozen inventories.
Outlook: Pricing will continue to rise due to tariffs.
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
Soft Commoditites
Published on October 8, 2025
Soybean Oil
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
The EPA announced higher biofuel blending targets, projected to increase soybean oil usage by 25%.
Lack of clarity on small refinery exemptions and reduced subsidies for imported feedstock is creating uncertainty.
Outlook: Uncertainty about the EPA program details is keeping soybean oil futures in a 49-55 cent range.
Flour
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
USDA expects the supply/demand situation for all wheat classes to remain unchanged.
Production is likely to be close to last year, both in the U.S. and worldwide.
Low corn prices continue to keep a lid on wheat prices, as about 20% of wheat is used for animal feed.
Outlook: Wheat futures suggest prices will remain low for the balance of the year.
Sugar
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
USDA projects sugar imports will fall by one-third, which should shrink the highest inventories in ten years.
Beet sugar is 12 cents/lb below cane sugar, causing beet sugar deliveries to rise while cane deliveries fall.
Outlook: With cane inventories up 22%, cane sugar prices may fall while beet prices rise.
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
Dairy Trends
Published on October 8, 2025
Eggs
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Egg layer numbers have been rebuilt to within 2% of last year, and egg production is also just 2% below last.
Increased supply allowed prices to dip to the lowest level since May 2024.
Retail features as low as $2.50/dozen are not creating enough demand to clear the current supply.
As the weather cools, egg sizing is also normalizing.
Outlook: Lower wholesale prices may prompt retailers to drop prices even further in the coming weeks.
Butter
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Butter inventories declined in August, returning to the 10-year average for the month.
Fundamentals remain bearish as increased milk and cream production keeps processors running at full capacity.
Prices that started July at $2.60/lb recently dipped to $1.60/lb, indicating that big discounts were needed to move inventory.
Outlook: Butter futures show slight price appreciation for the balance of 2025.
Cheese
Supply
Price
Key Drivers:
Despite strong exports, cheese inventories have been building at a faster pace than normal.
Lackluster food service demand appears to be a big part of the problem.
Domestic consumption is struggling to keep up with production increases.
Outlook: Cheese futures are pointing to a flat-to-lower price trend for the rest of 2025, suggesting a $1.60-$1.80 price range.
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
Inflation Trends
Published on October 8, 2025
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX ITEM
2025 MIDRANGE FORCAST
2026 MIDRANGE FORCAST
Wholesale Beef
+10.5%
-1.7%
Wholesale Pork
+4.7%
+3.8%
Wholesale Poultry
+3.0%
+0.2%
Farm Level Eggs
+46.1%
-24.6%
Wholesale Dairy
+0.3%
-0.6%
Wholesale Fats & Oils
+2.3%
+7.2%
Farm Level Fruits
-1.8%
0.0%
Farm Level Vegetables
-11.4%
+6.7%
Wholesale Wheat Flour
-3.2%
0.0%
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